I'm excited to dive into the latest housing market data for Orange County. If you're searching for "Orange County real estate trends 2026" or wondering "is Orange County a buyer's market in 2026," this analysis breaks down the key metrics from January 2026. Based on data from Realtors Property Resource (RPR), we'll explore active listings, pending sales, sold properties, inventory supply, and property values to help buyers, sellers, and investors make informed decisions.
Current Snapshot: A Shift Toward a Buyer's Market
In January 2026, Orange County's residential market (single-family homes, condos, townhouses, and apartments) shows signs of cooling, leaning firmly into a buyer's market. The months' supply of inventory stands at 1.86, which is below the balanced threshold of 4-6 months but up 1.1% from last month and down 5.1% year-over-year. This indicates moderate inventory levels, giving buyers more negotiating power than in recent peak seller's markets.
Key highlights include:
- Active Listings: 3,182 properties, a slight 1% increase month-over-month.
- Pending Listings: Median days in RPR at 38, up 1.8% from December 2025.
- Sold Listings: 1,150 properties closed, down a significant 27.2% month-over-month.
- Median Sold Price: $1,200,000, up 2.74% from last month.
- Sold to List Price Ratio: 100.2%, meaning homes are selling very close to asking price, with a 1.38% increase month-over-month.
- Median Days in RPR for Sold Homes: 28 days, up 7.69% month-over-month.
This data points to slower sales velocity amid rising inventory, potentially influenced by economic factors like interest rates or seasonal trends. For those asking "what's the average home price in Orange County 2026," the median estimated property value is $1,188,000, reflecting a -0.3% dip from December but a 1.2% gain over the past 12 months.
Deep Dive into Inventory and Listings Trends
Let's break down the historical trends to understand where the market stands today.
Active Listings Over Time: From January 2021 to January 2026, active listings have fluctuated significantly. Starting around 3,000 in early 2021, they dipped below 3,000 mid-year, peaked near 6,000 in late 2022, and have since trended downward with periodic spikes. The current 3,182 listings represent a stabilization, but the 1% monthly uptick suggests more homes are entering the market—good news for buyers facing less competition.
Pending Listings and Market Speed: Median days for pending listings have varied from lows of about 10 days in 2021 to highs near 40 in 2022 and 2023. At 38 days in January 2026, properties are taking longer to go under contract, up 1.8% from last month. This slowdown could signal buyer caution, perhaps due to affordability concerns in a high-price area like Orange County.
Sold Listings Performance: Sold properties peaked above 3,000 in early 2021 but have generally declined, with notable drops in 2022 and 2025. The 1,150 closings in January mark a 27.2% monthly decrease, indicating a quieter start to the year. If you're querying "Orange County home sales decline 2026," this aligns with broader California trends where economic uncertainty may be dampening demand.
| Metric | January 2026 Value | Month-over-Month Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 3,182 | +1% | Increasing supply favors buyers |
| Pending Days in RPR | 38 | +1.8% | Slower market pace |
| Sold Listings | 1,150 | -27.2% | Reduced sales volume |
| Months' Supply of Inventory | 1.86 | +1.1% | Still low, but edging up |
Property Values: Orange County vs. California and USA
Orange County's median estimated property value of $1,188,000 has shown resilience. Tracking back to 2008 (around $400,000-$600,000), values climbed steadily through the 2010s and 2020s, outpacing both California and the USA. While the state and national lines show similar upward trajectories, Orange County remains premium-priced.
- Last Month Change: -0.3% (slight dip, possibly seasonal).
- 12-Month Change: +1.2% (modest growth amid national averages).
For searches like "Orange County home value forecast 2026," this stability suggests values aren't skyrocketing like in the early 2020s boom, but they're holding strong. Compared to California's median (around $800,000-$900,000 in recent years) and the USA's ($300,000-$400,000), Orange County continues to command a premium due to its desirable location, beaches, and amenities.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026
- For Buyers: With inventory at 1.86 months and a buyer's market indicator, now could be an opportune time to purchase. Homes are lingering longer (28 median days for sold properties), and the sold-to-list ratio of 100.2% means less bidding wars. If interest rates stabilize, expect more affordability.
- For Sellers: The 27.2% drop in sales signals the need for competitive pricing and staging. While prices are up 2.74% monthly, the overall slowdown means preparing for potentially longer listing times.
- Investors: Watch the months' supply—if it creeps toward 3+, it could signal further buyer advantages. Orange County's proximity to tech hubs and coastal appeal keeps long-term appreciation likely.
These trends align with broader California real estate patterns, where post-pandemic shifts have moderated the frenzy. For personalized advice on "buying a home in Orange County 2026" or "selling property in Rancho Santa Margarita," reach out to me at MacLean Realty Group.
Looking Ahead: Orange County Housing Market Forecast
Based on this data, I anticipate a balanced market by mid-2026 if inventory continues to rise modestly. Factors like employment in sectors such as tech and tourism will play a key role. Stay tuned for monthly updates—subscribe to my blog for the latest on "Orange County real estate market analysis 2026."
For the latest market insights or to explore buying or selling opportunities, simply book an appointment or just reach out.
