The Orange County Real Estate Market Update: February 2026 Insights and Trends (with February 2026 mortgage context) continues to show a market tilting toward buyers, with new data on mortgage rates adding crucial affordability context for potential buyers and sellers.
Mortgage Affordability in February 2026: Key Rates for Orange County Buyers
As of February 10, 2026, mortgage rates remain in the mid-6% range nationally, with some competitive offers dipping lower for qualified borrowers. These rates directly impact monthly payments on Orange County's median sold price of around $1,200,000 (from January data), and the scenario modeled here assumes a $1,310,000 purchase price (slightly above median), 20% down payment ($262,000), resulting in a $1,048,000 loan amount, excellent credit (780 score), and primary residence use.
From Bankrate's latest survey (as of February 10, 2026, 6:30 AM):
- 30-Year Fixed Mortgage National average interest rate: 6.28% (APR 6.34%). Competitive top offers start as low as 5.123% to 5.125% (from select lenders, with points ranging 1-2 and APRs around 5.29%-5.32%). Monthly principal & interest payment estimates for a $1,048,000 loan: $3,266 to $3,454 (depending on exact rate and fees). This is up slightly from recent weeks (+0.06% in some reports), but still below the 7% peaks seen in prior years.
- Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) 5/6 ARM offers as low as 4.500% initial rate (APR ~5.83%, with points/fees), leading to monthly payments around $3,041 initially. Other 5/1 or similar ARM options hover in the 5.1%-5.2% range for starters. ARMs can offer short-term savings but carry adjustment risk after the fixed period—ideal for buyers planning to move or refinance within 5-7 years.
- Other Notes California-specific averages (from various sources) show 30-year fixed rates around 5.99%-6.11%, often lower than the national figure due to regional lender competition. 15-year fixed rates are in the 5.5%-5.7% range nationally. Rates are estimates, lender-specific, and can vary based on credit, down payment, location (e.g., Orange County ZIPs), and whether you pay points. Always get personalized quotes—many lenders offer below-average rates for strong profiles.
For a typical Orange County home at the January median sold price of $1,200,000 (with 20% down = $960,000 loan): At 6.28% 30-year fixed, principal & interest would be approximately $5,900-$6,000/month (excluding taxes, insurance, HOA). At a competitive 5.125%, it drops to around $5,200-$5,300/month—a meaningful difference in affordability.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026
- Buyers: With inventory at 1.86 months (still low but rising) and rates in the 5-6% range (better than recent highs), buying power has improved modestly. The buyer's market tilt, combined with homes taking 28 median days to sell and pending in 38 days, means more room to negotiate. If rates hold or dip further, expect increased activity—especially for well-priced properties in desirable areas.
- Sellers: Higher monthly payments (compared to sub-4% eras) continue to pressure demand, contributing to the 27.2% month-over-month drop in sold listings. Pricing competitively and highlighting affordability (e.g., lower rates available) is key.
- Investors: ARMs could provide lower entry costs for flips or rentals, but fixed rates offer predictability in a market with modest value growth (+1.2% YoY).
These mortgage dynamics reinforce the balanced-to-buyer-leaning trend from January data.
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